While home prices across the rest of the country crawled forward at a barely perceptible pace this February, New Jersey did something different. It surged. And not just by a little — the Garden State posted the highest year-over-year home price growth of any state in the nation, outpacing 49 other states and the District of Columbia by a comfortable margin. If you’ve been watching the NJ market from a Brooklyn walk-up or a Manhattan high-rise, wondering whether you missed your window — this is the data that says you haven’t. But the window is getting narrower.

Those numbers come from Cotality, the Irvine, California-based property analytics firm whose Home Price Index is the backbone of the S&P Case-Shiller Index. And they tell a story that anyone eyeing the NJ market should pay close attention to: while the rest of the country has hit an affordability ceiling, New Jersey is still climbing.

The national housing market grew just 0.5% year over year in February 2026 — the slowest pace in years. Thirteen states actually recorded negative appreciation. Florida prices dropped 2.3%. Washington, D.C. fell 3%. Montana declined 1.5%. The housing correction that many analysts predicted for the entire country is happening — but it’s happening selectively, and New Jersey is on the other side of that divide.

Why? According to Cotality’s analysis, the Northeast and Midwest are holding steady thanks to a combination of relative affordability, strong employment in high-wage sectors, and persistent demand from relocating buyers. In New Jersey specifically, the drivers include financial services and fintech employment, proximity to New York City, and a chronic shortage of housing inventory that keeps competition fierce.

The state-level number is impressive. But the metro-level number is even more telling. Among the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the country, the Newark metro area posted the single highest year-over-year home price increase in February at 6.7%. That metro area includes Union County, Essex County, Morris County, and surrounding communities — the exact territory where most NYC-to-NJ relocators end up.

Towns like Westfield, Summit, Montclair, Cranford, and Scotch Plains are all within this metro footprint. If you’re considering a move from the city to one of these communities, the February data confirms what agents on the ground have been seeing for months: demand is strong, inventory is tight, and prices are still rising.

The contrast is stark. While previously hot Sun Belt markets cool off under the weight of excess inventory and post-pandemic migration pullback, the Northeast — led by New Jersey — is rewriting the script. Cotality notes that 70% of the nation’s top 100 metro areas remain overvalued, but that’s actually an improvement from 83% a year ago. The market is rebalancing, and the places holding their value are the ones with real economic fundamentals behind them.

There’s an important caveat to all of this optimism: mortgage rates remain elevated and volatile. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.37% as of April 9, 2026 — down from a recent high near 6.50% at the end of March. Rates briefly dipped to around 6.05% in early March before climbing back up on inflation fears and geopolitical uncertainty.

If you’re a renter in Manhattan, Brooklyn, or Queens paying $3,500 to $5,000+ a month for a one- or two-bedroom apartment, the math hasn’t changed — NJ still offers dramatically more space, better schools, and lower total cost of living. What has changed is the urgency. With home prices in the Newark metro area climbing at nearly 7% annually, a $750,000 home today could cost roughly $800,000 a year from now if current trends hold.

For hybrid workers commuting two or three days a week, NJ Transit towns along the Raritan Valley Line, Northeast Corridor, and Midtown Direct offer 35- to 65-minute rides into Penn Station. The combination of rising home equity, lower monthly costs, and a commute that only happens a few times a week has made this trade-off a no-brainer for thousands of families — and the price data proves it.